The king of the French exchange took a hit this year. Oil slipped and profits followed, down 30% from last season’s harvest. Market cap fell back to €110 billion.
Bank of America wagged its finger: too much spending, not enough self-funding, and a debt barrel that might soon overflow. Scary stuff, until you check the numbers.
Over the past decade, TotalEnergies minted €128 billion in free cash flow. Half went back to shareholders via €63 billion in dividends and €18 billion in buybacks. The rest kept the machine oiled.
Despite its recent uptick, debt is sitting right at its historical average of roughly one and a half times the company’s average operating profit. As balance sheets go, for an oil major, it’s downright Presbyterian.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Hovering around €50, Total’s share price today matches exactly where it traded twenty years ago. Not approximately. Exactly.
The numbers tell the whole story. Earnings per share crawl from €5.2 in 2005 to €6.3 in 2025. Meager growth, and that’s before inflation takes its bite.
Then there’s production and reserves — both flat over two decades. Meanwhile, Russia’s gone and trouble’s brewing in Mozambique and Uganda, where Total lined up big money.
Which brings us to valuation. Total’s fair price depends mainly on two things: its dividend yield and the prevailing interest rates. The ten-year Treasury sits at 4.4%. Total yields 6.2%.
That 1.8% risk premium seems about right, maybe even a touch slim. What’s for sure is that it’s neither a thrill nor a robbery.
Unless, of course, crude decides to dance again. Then all bets are off.